Two Weeks Left in the Year: What to Pay Attention to in the Real Estate Market

Two Weeks Left in the Year: What to Pay Attention to in the Real Estate Market

As we head into the final two weeks of the year, something predictable happens in real estate.

Many agents turn off their phones, press pause until January, and shift their full focus to the holidays — and honestly, for good reason. This is a season meant for family, faith, reflection, generosity, and presence.

For us, that includes your family too.

Yes, we’re shopping for presents, being present in our faith, making sure our kids feel the magic of the season, giving back to those in need — and we’re also staying deeply connected to what’s happening with your greatest asset: your home.

Because the market doesn’t fully pause — it simply becomes quieter. And quieter markets often create meaningful opportunity.

If you’re thinking about selling

If you’ve decided that selling is on your horizon, the next two weeks are less about urgency and more about intentionality.

This is a great time to sit down and decide: do you want to lean into the push — preparing now so you’re positioned for an early- or mid-January listing? Or does it make more sense to pause with purpose — enjoying the holidays fully and preparing for a strategic launch once the calendar turns?

There’s no universal right answer. Every home, timeline, and family situation is different — and that’s exactly where experience matters.

We’re helping sellers weigh preparation timelines, market conditions specific to their city, pricing momentum, and lifestyle considerations that matter just as much as numbers. The goal isn’t “list fast.” The goal is list well — and at the right time for you.

If you’re thinking about buying

If buying is on your radar, here’s something we’ll say gently but clearly: don’t sleep on the next two weeks.

Finding a home now does not mean moving during the holidays. What it does mean is less buyer competition, more motivated sellers looking to finish the year with a contract, and stronger negotiating opportunities.

Many sellers right now are willing to negotiate price, contribute toward closing costs, or be flexible on timing. Buying in late December is often about positioning, not disruption.

What we’re seeing in the market right now

Here’s the data we’re watching as we close out the year — and why it matters.

Market balance is moving toward sellers

Once again, the trend over the last week has been strongly favorable to sellers. Demand is improving while supply is in decline. Like last week, green signals are outnumbering red signals by 15 to 3. The average change in the Cromford Market Index over the last month is +8.6%, up from +6.4% last week.

Leading the movement in favor of sellers are Peoria, Queen Creek, Fountain Hills, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, and Maricopa. Paradise Valley is the leading city improving for buyers with its CMI down 4% in the last month, and it appears to have stabilized with little change in the last three weeks.

We now have nine cities in a seller’s market, including the three biggest markets (Phoenix, Scottsdale, Mesa). The remaining larger cities include three balanced markets and six buyer’s markets. Secondary cities remain more mixed, which reinforces an important truth: real estate is hyper-local.

A word on investors and the headlines

On December 10, we reviewed another claim making the rounds: that investors are giving up and flooding the market with supply no one wants. We don’t see data that backs up that view, at least not in Greater Phoenix.

The percentage of transactions involving an investor buyer has been rising recently and is now up to 13.8% as of October. That is the highest percentage since 2023. Investors have not lost their appetite for buying — if anything, they are buying slightly more. The bigger change is that iBuyers like Opendoor and OfferPad are doing far fewer transactions than they did before (0.3% in October), which is negligible compared to their peak share in 2021.

There is also little to no sign of former rentals being listed for sale in higher numbers than usual. In 2024, we did see some short-term rental owners exit, but that trend has faded. In the second half of 2025, the holiday rental market is showing improving signs, with occupancy up year over year and revenue per night moving higher.

If the market were being flooded, we would see the balance heading in favor of buyers. The opposite is currently the case. The market balance is moving steadily in favor of sellers, though we are still a long way from the balance point. Once we get to January, a new trend may set in — but it probably won’t have anything to do with investors.

Mid-month price summary

Each month around this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved, and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed — then we give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next month.

For the monthly period ending November 15, the recorded sales price per square foot is $294.74 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 2.3% from the $288.15 measured for October 15. The forecast range mid-point was $295.17, and pricing has been almost as strong as anticipated.

On November 15, pending listings show an average list price per square foot of $324.45, up 2.3% from October 15. This suggests that closed prices are likely to rise again over the next four weeks as we head into the holiday season.

Among those pending listings, 97.8% are normal, 0.9% are REOs, and 1.3% are pre-foreclosures (including a very small number of short sales). The level of distress is down slightly from last month, but up from a year ago.

The mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales price per square foot on December 15 is $300.49, up 1.9% from the November 15 reading, with a 90% confidence range of $294.48 to $306.50.

As expected, the upward trend in supply has reached its peak and we can expect falling active counts through the end of December. Demand has responded to lower interest rates with higher pending and UCB counts than last year (up 11%). Closings are also up (about 4%) compared to this time last year. Since supply is still higher than last year, the market balance overall has favored buyers — but the trend in demand is up and the trend in supply is down, which is something sellers can be pleased about.

Why we stay present, even during the holidays

We’re spending more time with our families this season — and we’re also staying present for yours.

We have three more families closing this year and one new listing going live. Every situation is different, and we’ve helped enough families through enough unique circumstances to know how to guide you through yours — whether you’re planning a move in one year or five, want to explore options for building wealth through real estate, or simply want clarity on what the market is doing right now.

If you want to talk strategy, explore timing, or get a clear plan for buying or selling without turning the holidays into a second job, we’d love to connect.