Will Houses be Cheaper in Chandler in a Year?

Will Houses Be Cheaper in Chandler in a Year?

I had a client recently ask me a deceptively simple question:

“Do you think houses will be cheaper in Chandler in a year?”

It was the distilled version of a much longer conversation — one that included whether he should let a renter extend, whether that would force a sale in the middle of Arizona’s spring season, whether his margins were too thin to keep renting since he hasn’t owned the home long, and whether selling now might be the cleanest option given what we’re seeing in the market.

My short answer was no. But the long answer mattered — because the decision wasn’t about predicting the market. It was about understanding risk.

As I wrapped up the timeline, I could hear the relief in his voice. Not because I told him what to do — I didn’t — but because I gave him context. History. Data. Not opinions. Not politics. Just facts.

First, a truth we need to agree on

We cannot predict the market.

What we can do is explain what we can reasonably expect, based on the data we have today. From there, every client decides their own risk tolerance.

That’s no different than:

• Buying or selling stock
• Choosing a business partner
• Picking chicken or steak

(Some people go with their gut. Others build a spreadsheet. Neither is wrong.)

Why real estate doesn’t move like stocks

Unlike the stock market, real estate is not especially volatile — unless something extraordinary is introduced, like:

• A global pandemic
• A financial institution collapse

You can’t manufacture inventory overnight. You can’t instantly convert demand into closed transactions. And there will always be people for whom the market simply doesn’t work.

That’s why so many people wish they’d bought during COVID — when prices were lower — but couldn’t. It was too fast. Too competitive. Too cash-heavy. Too uncertain.

To understand today, we have to go back a decade

Before COVID ever showed up, we already had a problem.

From 2017–2019, I was consistently talking about declining inventory. Builders had underbuilt for years after the market crash, driven by fear of another downturn. As a result, we were falling further behind household formation.

And real estate prices are based on just two things:

How much of something exists
How many people want it

That’s it.

So when COVID hit, we entered the pandemic already short on homes.

What COVID actually did to the market

Even during a pandemic:

• People still needed to move
• People still bought homes
• Life events didn’t stop

At the same time, mortgage rates were artificially suppressed to avoid stacking a financial crisis on top of a health crisis.

The result?

• Demand surged
• Inventory collapsed further
• Prices skyrocketed

Suddenly, everyone became a landlord. Cash flowed easily. Margins were wide. You could cash-flow on day one with very little capital.

That phase lasted a little over a year.

Then the brakes were applied

Eventually:

• Prices pushed the upper limit of affordability
• Cash got redirected into other debt
• Inflation accelerated

Decision-makers responded by raising interest rates.

For anyone who had already made significant gains, that was a warning sign:

Margins were about to tighten.

So a lot of “extra” inventory hit the market all at once.

What was left behind?

• Mostly owner-occupied homes
• Sellers who would also need to buy if they sold

Which doesn’t actually add much inventory.

The stalemate phase (aka: where we’ve been)

Buyers thought:

“So now I’m paying double the price and double the payment?”

Sellers thought:

“Maybe I’ll just wait.”

And so… we waited.

No flood of inventory. Buyers watching from the sidelines. A slower market that felt uncomfortable — even though nothing was fundamentally broken.

This phase has lasted about a year and a half.

Now let’s talk specifically about Chandler

Chandler has quietly stayed in a seller’s market the entire time.

It’s moved through phases:

• A strong seller’s market
• A frenzied seller’s market
• A slower seller’s market

But consistently, there have been more buyers than available homes.

That leads to:

• Price growth in some segments
• Stability in others
• Concessions over the last 18 months that masked downward pressure

Those concessions weren’t about market health — they were about pace.

Compare that to Maricopa

Maricopa is sitting at roughly 50% of what a balanced market looks like.

That creates:

• Real downward pressure on pricing
• A longer road back to equilibrium

And because we can’t instantly add inventory or force buyers into motion, even reaching balance will take time — let alone shifting back into a seller’s market where prices typically rise slowly and steadily.

One more important reset

There was never anything wrong with the market.

The issue is that the market cannot appreciate as fast as some buyers from the last few years need it to — simply because there aren’t enough transactions to support that kind of movement.

Nationally, this is normal. Here in Arizona, we just got used to something unusual:

• Buying and selling every 2–3 years
• Covering costs
• Making money quickly

That doesn’t mean it’s impossible now — it just means the gaps are smaller and slower.

And honestly? That’s more stable. For what is often someone’s largest and most emotional investment, that’s not a bad thing.

So… will houses be cheaper in Chandler in a year?

No.

Because Chandler is already in a seller’s market, prices would require:

• A meaningful loss of buyers
• A long path just to reach balance

Could it happen? Of course. Is it likely based on what we know today? No.

And that’s the difference between predicting the market and understanding it.

A Simple Decision Framework: Rent, Re-Rent, or Sell?

This isn’t about predicting the market. It’s about choosing the path that best fits your risk tolerance, timeline, and financial reality.

Step 1: Start with what you know today

Ask yourself:

• What is my actual monthly margin if I rent or re-rent (after maintenance, vacancy, and reserves)?
• How long have I owned the property?
• Do I need appreciation in the short term for this to work, or can time do the heavy lifting?

If the plan only works if prices jump quickly, that’s a higher-risk position.

Step 2: Clarify your timeline

There is no “right” answer — just alignment.

• Short timeline (0–2 years): Timing, seasonality, and transaction costs carry more weight.
• Medium timeline (3–5 years): Flexibility increases. You can absorb slower appreciation cycles.
• Long timeline (5+ years): Day-to-day market movement matters less. Cash flow and sustainability matter more.

Step 3: Decide how much uncertainty you’re comfortable carrying

Every option has tradeoffs.

• Rent / Re-Rent
  • Pros: Keeps you in the asset, avoids selling costs
  • Cons: Thin margins, vacancy risk, maintenance surprises
  • Best for: Owners comfortable with variability and time
• Sell
  • Pros: Certainty, liquidity, cleaner balance sheet
  • Cons: Opportunity cost if prices rise, transaction costs
  • Best for: Owners prioritizing clarity and flexibility

Neither choice is “bullish” or “bearish.” They’re simply different risk profiles.

Step 4: Separate market health from market pace

A slower market does not mean a broken market.

Ask:

• Is pricing soft because demand disappeared — or because buyers are moving more slowly?
• Am I reacting to headlines — or responding to local supply and demand?

Slower pace ≠ guaranteed price drops.

Step 5: Pressure-test your decision

Before deciding, ask one final question:

“If the market does exactly what it’s doing now for the next 12–18 months, am I still okay with this choice?”

If the answer is yes — you’re likely aligned. If the answer is no — it’s time to reassess.

The takeaway

You don’t need a crystal ball. You need context, data, and a clear understanding of your risk tolerance.

The goal isn’t to outsmart the market — it’s to make a decision you can stand behind regardless of what the market does next.