August 28-29

Welcome Back, Weekend Warriors!

This is the Amy Jones Group's weekly newsletter, detailing local events, recent real estate news, and open houses.

This week, we're bringing you six fun-filled events happening around the Valley!

Check out the new Cromford report where they are reporting a stabilization of the market at our current numbers meaning not much fluctuation in either direction and if anything, a few with declining inventory again as buyer demand returns - and the expectation that we can continue to see prices rise for the foreseeable future, at a MORE NORMAL (but still high) rate of appreciation. It’s time to stop talking about the market that was, the market that we had “never been in before” and talk about the market we’re in, the one we experienced last year, the one where inventory is low and demand is good, the one where prices are rising and houses are selling quickly but without the temporary psychosis that the market experienced from March to June - it was a temporary blip, but without the eventual fall, and now we’re settling back into the normal road that is Arizona real estate where most market shifts take 2-3 years to cycle.

The total number of active listings without a contract is still rising, but only very slightly. Only 44 net listings were added over the past week across all areas and types and just 15 in the prior week. It would take many years to get back to a balanced market at this rate. We have just under 7,000 active listings without a contract and a balanced market would need between 25,000 and 30,000.

August 24 - The active listing counts (excluding UCB and CCBS) have almost stabilized over the last 2 weeks and are now showing very little upward momentum. This is bad news for buyers because they are stabilizing at a very low level, although not as low as they were during the early spring. Several cities are seeing declines in supply over the last week, for example:

• Scottsdale - 523 listings (529 last week, 545 two weeks ago) - long term average is 2,202
• Mesa - 374 listings (378 last week) - long term average is 1,521
• Avondale - 36 listings (39 last week, 40 two weeks ago) - long term average 333

The situation is vastly different from that in 2005 when supply exploded and caused the market to crash starting in 2006. We still have a severe shortage of homes for sale, and although affordability problems are reducing normal owner-occupier demand, the demand from investors and iBuyers is taking their place.

August 19 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities

The Northeast Valley is clearly out-performing the rest of the valley with inventory staying lower and improving demand trends. Paradise Valley also has stable low inventory but demand there has weakened over the past month.

We are also seeing CMI increases over the past week in two other major cities: Surprise and Tempe. Among the secondary cities we see Apache Junction, El Mirage, Laveen, Sun City West, Sun Lakes and Tolleson all moving higher in the last week. Several more major cities have their CMI move down by very little in the past 7 days: Gilbert, Glendale, Peoria and Phoenix are in that category. They look ripe for a possible turnaround.

Because it is the most leading of leading indicators, there is nothing we can use to forecast the CMI. It is telling us that increases in demand are helping to balance the rise in supply, but supply is still nowhere near enough to meet the demand. Much of that increased demand is coming from iBuyers and buy-to-rent investors. These buyers do not have to worry about the affordability of their monthly mortgage payments. However their demand can be switched off in seconds by a simple business decision, as happened in 2Q 2020. We therefore need to treat their demand as less sustainable than that from regular owner-occupiers. These owner-occupiers are struggling with affordability concerns right now, despite interest rates that remain low.

If the overall CMI stabilizes above 300, it means prices still have upward momentum that will probably manifest during the fourth quarter after a relatively quiet third quarter.

As your residential real estate experts and community advocates, our job is to serve through real estate and community, and we are passionate about helping your family move forward with the solution that is right for you. For convenience, for ease, for peace of mind, for clarity, and for YOU, give us a call at 480-250-3857 or join us at one of our upcoming events on Our Events Page.

😲 In Case You Missed It!