February 19-20

Welcome Back, Weekend Warriors!

This is the Amy Jones Group's weekly newsletter, detailing local events, recent real estate news, and open houses.

This week, we're bringing you these fall fun-filled events happening around the Valley!

You can’t stop into a coffee shop, settle into the reclining chairs at the movies, or pick up fresh produce at the farmers market without overhearing a conversation about real estate in Arizona. How expensive houses are, how hard it is to find one, how interest rates are rising and speculation about when it will all come crashing down. Contrary to the universal law of gravitation, not everything that goes up must come down which is likely going to be a disappointing revelation to those who have spent the 18 months waiting for prices to start falling like Newton’s apple from the proverbial real estate tree. In fact in that time period, not only have housing prices gone up on average of 38% but interest rates have increased by 28% making the housing market in Arizona about 20% less affordable in that same time period according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index. And yet, in that same time period Arizona homeowners have accumulated more equity in their homes than their domestic peers topping the S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index®, making it one of the most profitable real estate markets in history. So, what gives? Is it a good time to buy or not?     

There’s a method in cognitive therapy, for those of us that geek out on personal development that is roughly called facts and feelings which includes the process of stating the facts, independent of the feelings, in an effort to control and clarify your response. This would be a good exercise for all of us to follow when discussing the real estate market because so much of our interpretation of the data is skewed by our own personal feelings about money, our upbringing and relationship to generational wealth, and our lived experiences around particularly triggering events like a stock market crash, the housing bubble, or even the inflation hikes of the early 80s which determine our risk profile. What we know to be true about the real estate market is that supply is 75% below normal, demand is 19% above normal,  the median sales price is up 2.5% over the last month alone, and regardless of whether mortgage rates increase or not (which they will), property values will continue to rise as long as supply remains below normal, and yet most consumers still FEEL now is not a good time to buy a home. So, where is the disconnect? 

The pressure of inflationary costs, supply chain delays and the extreme difficulty in finding and securing labor, appliances, and building materials are overshadowing the opportunities presented by a real estate market that is on a speeding, inclining train - until its not. Think about this, many home owners have significant equity in their home but until realized, this unseen value carries no benefit just as your home price will not matter until you sell it. What if you could leverage that equity you’ve accumulated in your home and hedge against the future of inflation by securing hard real estate assets that work over time every time and putting your money to work now. Homeowners who have done this are taking advantage of today’s values and today’s interest rates to pay off debt, build a portfolio of rental properties with historically low vacancy rates while accumulating more equity and increasing their cash flow, moving up into houses that meet the space demands of their families that may become unobtainable or unaffordable at higher interest rates, and downsizing while leveraging the funds to build savings accounts for retirement or other unexpected life changes, like when the market corrects itself which it cannot do until supply rises to a point where it can satiate demand. 

The alternative to home ownership is renting or homelessness, both populations being the most vulnerable at the current moment. In addition to renters sitting on the sidelines while money is accumulated on paper or leveraged by their home owning peers - rental prices have increased an astonishing 30% in the last two years and supply of available rentals has plummeted to nearly 50% of normal meaning that affordability and supply issues extend to the rental market but without the benefit of equity accumulation. Programs abound to help renters who qualify, but its the ones who are bypassing home ownership by choice who are leaving money on the table while a shortage of all housing types presents a unique challenge for particular sectors of our employees, recent graduates, low income, very low income, and our homeless population where the Family Housing Hub has been reporting an 8-12 week wait list for emergency housing over the last two years.

While policy advocates work to encourage creative solutions for injecting supply into our market, we can expect prices to continue to rise whether consumers think its a good time to buy or not as long as we have deficient supply. Buying will always win in the long game over renting and real estate will continue to be one of the most recommended investments for hedging against inflation. Separating facts from feelings is understandably difficult as real estate for primary home owners will always be deeply personal. The challenges of the current market are robust and the rewards can be life changing - as they say, the train is moving whether you are on it or not.

😲 In Case You Missed It!