May 22 & 23
Welcome Back, Weekend Warriors!
This is the Amy Jones Group's weekly newsletter, detailing local events, recent real estate news, and open houses.
This week, we're bringing you five fun-filled events happening around the Valley!
Our Team is Growing
We are hiring!
Real Estate Professionals
The Amy Jones Group is growing! We are looking for EXPERIENCED agents to join our Southeast Valley team. Known for our excellent client care, exceptional negotiation skills, world class digital marketing, and being trusted advisors in the SE Valley for more than a decade - we are looking for hard working, ethical, creative, real estate professionals who love to learn and thrive in a team environment, where giving back and giving to each other is important to our overall success. For more information on who we are and how to apply, visit:
https://www.amyjonesgroup.com/careers or reply to this post directly!
Email your resumes to - [email protected]
Here are the basics - the ARMLS numbers for May 1, 2021 compared with May 1, 2020 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 5,080 versus 14,051 last year - down 63.8% - but up 24.2% from 4,089 last month
- Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 9,438 versus 17,867 last year - down 47.2% - but up 8.5% compared with 8,699 last month
- Pending Listings: 7,829 versus 5,676 last year - up 37.9% - but down 1.7% from 7,964 last month
- Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 12,187 versus 9,512 last year - up 28.1% - but down 3.1% from 12,575 last month
- Monthly Sales: 10,172 versus 7,174 last year - up 41.8% - but down 2.2% from 10,396 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $243.50 versus $183.96 last year - up 32.41% - and up 5.1% from $231.75 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $373,000 versus $299,999 last year - up 24.3% - and up 4.1% from $358,250 last month
These numbers are the most interesting we have seen for a long time. They show a very hot market with supply dramatically mismatched to demand. However they also confirm a cooling trend that has been developing over the last 7 weeks. This was first reported by the Cromford® Market Index, but is now being confirmed by a number of other metrics including:
- Active listings are UP significantly from the beginning of April, though admittedly from a very tiny number
- Under contract counts are DOWN for the second month in a row
- Sales counts are down compared with March
Markets do not get hotter indefinitely. The primary mechanism by which they cool down is through prices. In hot markets pricing goes up which causes demand to weaken, which means the supply gets a chance to recover. When prices go up, some buyers can no longer afford to buy and drop out. The faster that pricing goes up, the more buyers tend to drop out, at least in a healthy market. If this is not happening then you probably have a bubble where pure speculation has taken over and demand grows when prices rise. We are not seeing this.
12 months ago we were in the early stages of adjusting to COVID-19 so the year over year comparisons are not very meaningful. Demand dropped sharply in April 2020 only to recover quickly by June.
All changes tend to start small and then grow. The current market cooling is like that. We now have supply increasing and demand falling. This will gradually release some of the steam from the over-heating engine and the market can trend back towards normality. In a normal market prices still tend to rise, but in our current market, prices are rising at an unsustainable pace - the monthly average $/SF soared by over 5% in a single month. If the next 8 months behaved like April 2021, we would see the median sale price rise to $514,000 by the end of the year. I doubt that will happen.
Even though we have entered a cooling phase, it will probably take several quarters (if not years) to cool down to normal and prices will continue to rise at a brisk pace for quite some time.
So, what does this mean for our buyers? Despite all the incredible news about rising real estate prices, a family making the median income of $79,000 in Greater Phoenix could still afford 62.8% of what sold in the first quarter of 2021. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB.org) assumes that “a family can afford to spend 28% of its gross income on housing.” That means 62.8% of homes sold cost their new owners $1,843 per month or less assuming a 10% down payment and including principal, interest, taxes and insurance. According to HUD, $79,000 represents a 26% increase in the local median annual income over the past 5 years; up $16,500 from $62,500 in 2016.
While reassuring, it doesn’t remove the frustrations of competing for homes in this marketplace. Last month, 56% of all sales closed over asking price and half of them went $15,000 over or more to win. For the last 7 weeks, half of all listings that went under contract in the MLS were active for just 6 days or less.
However, the last few months have shown a glimmer of relief for buyers as supply counts actually stopped declining; and in price ranges between $500K-$800K they have noticeably increased 40% since February. Supply is still 69% lower than last year at this time so there’s a long way to go before it’s considered normal, but it’s something.
And for our sellers? Well, you’re not going to notice this, but the housing market has begun to cool down. It’s still hot however, like 400 degrees is still hot despite being cooler than 500 degrees. Sellers can still expect multiple offers and closings over asking price; however it’s important to note that supply has stopped dropping and has been rising in certain price points over $500K. Seasonally speaking, Greater Phoenix supply should be dropping at this time of year, not going flat or rising. When measures go against the season, it can be the beginning of a shift.
The reason this shift will not be noticed is because supply is still much lower than demand, so any slight increase in competition is inconsequential to a seller’s ability to secure a buyer, even one willing to pay over asking price. One of the early indicators that a market is shifting, however, is the number of list price reductions. For example, supply between $600K-$800K has risen 45% since late February; in the same time frame, the number of weekly price reductions increased 223% and hit the highest count taken in nearly 6 months. That’s notable. However in other price points where supply has flattened out, price reductions have remained low and stable.
The advantage in any market, not just housing, is being one of the first to know when things are shifting. Especially today, it’s a good idea to consult a Realtor® who can analyze your price point and area so you can make an informed decision regarding the sale of your home.
We’d love the chance to talk more about your current situation and how we can help - even if you aren’t quite sure what your question is, let us catch you up on the market of the moment! We’re so grateful to serve our community through real estate and would love to work with you AGAIN or for the first time!
Have more questions? Give us a call or schedule an appointment below -
Rockin Sunday Yoga - Gilber
Sunday, May 23rd at 8:30 am
Come join Whiskey Row Gilbert for Rockin Sunday Yoga at 8:30am! We will be yoga partying on the dance floor to an 80's playlist! Check in starts at 8:00am. SPACE IS VERY LIMITED!!! We have limited space. Please sign up ASAP as we sell out FAST.
We will be bringing a fun, all-levels class and will have mats if needed. You do not need to have experience or flexibility. All you need is to show up and be ready to have a great time! Pre and post yoga drinks and food are optional but highly encouraged. A big group of us will be staying afterwards so please stay if you want to hang out afterwards. Invite your friends and come join the fun. No shoes, no shirt, no problem!
Location: Whiskey Row in Downtown Gilbert. Playlist will be the best of the 80s! Be ready to have a blast!!
Pricing Options: $25, PartyPasses in the quantity of 2, 3, 4, 5 (and can be shared!) are available for reduced admission! Sign up through our website or you can send admission through Venmo @yogapartylive
Cancellation policy: non refundable after 24 hours before class. You can always send a replacement as well.
Sundown in Downtown - Mesa
Saturday, May 22nd at 9:30 am
Lights, Camera, Action! It's time to bring families together, socially distanced of course, for family movie night! Bring your blankets and chairs, meet Princesses and Superheroes and enjoy the movie!
Popcorn and beverages will be available for purchase but we encourage you to grab food to go from one of our wonderful downtown restaurants to enjoy during the movie.
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
Dress as your favorite character!
**Advanced ticket purchase is required**
Gilbert Chamber of Commerce - Philanthropic Lunch
Tuesday, May 25th at 11:00 am
Join the Women Empowered Committee and our presenting sponsors Mercedes-Benz of Gilbert and Phoenix Children's Hospital for "As You Are: Empowering the Philanthropist and Leader in Each of Us!"
Attendees will hear from our guest speaker, Kathleen Dowler, Director of Community Health at Dignity Health, experience vendor booths, networking, and participate in our raffle!
Support scholarships for Gilbert Leadership through our raffle!
Funds raised through our raffle will go toward providing scholarships for female participants in the Gilbert Leadership program. It is our goal to raise enough money to provide two full scholarships this year! To learn more about the Gilbert Leadership program, attendees will hear from Jaime Johnson, Class 24 on her experience with the program.
SanTan Elegante Conference & Reception Center
Doubletree by Hilton - Gilbert
1800 S. Santan Village Pkwy
Gilbert, AZ 85295
For those who purchase a virtual ticket, the link to view the live broadcast will be provided 24hrs prior to the event.
Women in Leadership Breakfast - Chandler
Friday, June 4th at 9:00 am
We're halfway through the year! That means it's time to Rewind, Refresh & Recommit to those goals for the rest of 2021!
Do not miss our next Women in Leadership Breakfast! We'll be talking about those goals that you made at the beginning of the year and where you need to be to finish 2021 strong! Our special guest, Liz Illg will be talking about the importance of owning your time, saying yes to you and how those actions will help you reach your goals.
Liz Illg is a multi-industry entrepreneur with brick-and-mortar businesses across Phoenix, Arizona, and several online businesses including her own consulting business. Liz Illg Consulting was founded when business owners continually asked Liz how she grew her brick-and-mortar storefront to multiple locations in a short amount of time. Liz attributes all of her success in business growth to systems, effective delegation, and strategic planning. Business owners consult with Liz when they're ready to systematize, delegate, and scale.
Please visit the link below to find out how to join us in supporting Fairway Independent Mortgage in putting together a care package for a U.S. Soldier! We will accept any donations leading up to the event or bring it to Parlay on June 4th! See you there!
DO NOT miss this event!
Local Business Mixer - Chandler
Thursday, July 1st at 4:30 pm
Join the Amy Jones Real Estate Group for our quarterly business mixer!
As one of the top real estate groups in the Valley, we are always looking for new businesses to share with our clients.
Come by Parlay Kitchen to meet our team of fantastic agents, as well as other local businesses!
This event is being sponsored by our friends at Fidelity National Title Agency - Copper Point
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