May 29 & 30
Welcome Back, Weekend Warriors!
This is the Amy Jones Group's weekly newsletter, detailing local events, recent real estate news, and open houses.
This week, we're bringing you five fun-filled events happening around the Valley!
Our Team is Growing
We are hiring!
Real Estate Professionals
The Amy Jones Group is growing! We are looking for EXPERIENCED agents to join our Southeast Valley team. Known for our excellent client care, exceptional negotiation skills, world class digital marketing, and being trusted advisors in the SE Valley for more than a decade - we are looking for hard working, ethical, creative, real estate professionals who love to learn and thrive in a team environment, where giving back and giving to each other is important to our overall success. For more information on who we are and how to apply, visit:
https://www.amyjonesgroup.com/careers or reply to this post directly!
Email your resumes to - [email protected]
Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast
Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next month.
For the monthly period ending May 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $249.15 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up an amazing 5.6% from the $236.04 we now measure for April 15. Actually, we should not be too amazed, because the Cromford® Market Index topped 500 in March and so we confidently predicted the sort of price rises we are now experiencing. Our forecast range mid-point was $246.35, with a 90% confidence range of $241.62 to $251.48. Prices rose even more than we predicted, $2.80 more than our mid-point to be precise. However this was still well within the high end of our 90% confidence range.
On May 15 the pending listings for all areas & types show an average list $/SF of $242.37, up only 0.2% from the reading for April 15. Among those pending listings we have 99.3% normal, 0.3% in REOs and 0.4% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. These are similar to last month and thus close to the lowest levels of distress that we have ever recorded.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $249.68, which is 0.2% above the May 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $244.69 to $254.67.
You will probably notice that we are forecasting that sales prices will rise at a far slower pace between May and June. Prices cannot rise at over 6% per month every month and the market needs to take a breath. This is most likely to happen during the hottest part of the year. This is when the luxury market tends to cool off and the investors are in their element. Many wealthy people do not like shopping for homes when the temperature is over 100 degrees, but investors need to make a living all year round. We expect the sales mix to reflect those facts between June and September. Our specific forecast for June is because there has been very little movement in the average $/SF for listings under contract over the past several weeks.
Average sales $/SF has risen over 9% in the last 2 months, equivalent to an annual appreciation rate of over 55%. We should not be surprised if the summer months are far less dramatic than the spring.
At this point I would like to remind everyone that CoreLogic predicted that home prices across the USA would FALL by 6.6% between June 2020 and June 2021. Possibly the most inaccurate forecast in their history. Personally I don't take any 12 month home price forecast any more seriously than a 12 month weather forecast. But really, that was like predicting deep snow drifts in July for Phoenix. It was never possible.
Despite all the incredible news about rising real estate prices, a family making the median income of $79,000 in Greater Phoenix could still afford 62.8% of what sold in the first quarter of 2021. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB.org) assumes that “a family can afford to spend 28% of its gross income on housing.” That means 62.8% of homes sold cost their new owners $1,843 per month or less assuming a 10% down payment and including principal, interest, taxes and insurance. According to HUD, $79,000 represents a 26% increase in the local median annual income over the past 5 years; up $16,500 from $62,500 in 2016.
While reassuring, it doesn’t remove the frustrations of competing for homes in this marketplace. Last month, 56% of all sales closed over asking price and half of them went $15,000 over or more to win. For the last 7 weeks, half of all listings that went under contract in the MLS were active for just 6 days or less.
However, the last few months have shown a glimmer of relief for buyers as supply counts actually stopped declining; and in price ranges between $500K-$800K they have noticeably increased 40% since February. Supply is still 69% lower than last year at this time so there’s a long way to go before it’s considered normal, but it’s something.
And for our sellers? Well, you’re not going to notice this, but the housing market has begun to cool down. It’s still hot however, like 400 degrees is still hot despite being cooler than 500 degrees. Sellers can still expect multiple offers and closings over asking price; however it’s important to note that supply has stopped dropping and has been rising in certain price points over $500K. Seasonally speaking, Greater Phoenix supply should be dropping at this time of year, not going flat or rising. When measures go against the season, it can be the beginning of a shift.
The reason this shift will not be noticed is because supply is still much lower than demand, so any slight increase in competition is inconsequential to a seller’s ability to secure a buyer, even one willing to pay over asking price. One of the early indicators that a market is shifting, however, is the number of list price reductions. For example, supply between $600K-$800K has risen 45% since late February; in the same time frame, the number of weekly price reductions increased 223% and hit the highest count taken in nearly 6 months. That’s notable. However in other price points where supply has flattened out, price reductions have remained low and stable.
The advantage in any market, not just housing, is being one of the first to know when things are shifting. Especially today, it’s a good idea to consult a Realtor® who can analyze your price point and area so you can make an informed decision regarding the sale of your home.
We’d love the chance to talk more about your current situation and how we can help - even if you aren’t quite sure what your question is, let us catch you up on the market of the moment! We’re so grateful to serve our community through real estate and would love to work with you AGAIN or for the first time!
Have more questions? Give us a call or schedule an appointment below -
Crayola Experience - Chandler
Memorial Day Weekend - FREE Admission
We salute our TRUE BLUE Heroes! Active, retired and veteran military personnel receive FREE admission May 28-31. PLUS immediate family members get 25% OFF admission!* https://bit.ly/3hAUROd
*Restrictions apply, see site for details
Memorial Day Weekend - Scottsdale
Saturday, May 28th & 29th at 12:00 pm
Poolside DJ Saturday and Sunday from 12:00 - 3:00pm
Steel Drummer Playing at the Asadero Patio Friday & Saturday from 5:30 - 7:30pm
Dive In Movie Saturday Night at Dusk
*Free Event for Hotel Guests*
Fireworks Show - Ahwatukee
Saturday, May 29th at 8:00 pm
Fireworks Show at Rustler's Rooste!
Join them atop South Mountain at Rustler's Rooste for a dazzling fireworks show, Saturday, May 29 at 8 PM! It's sure to be a fun-filled evening of Fireworks & the Valley's best steaks, burgers, chicken, and seafood!
The fireworks show is only available to Rustler's Rooste guests! So come on up for dinner & stay for the show!
They are on a walk-in only basis for May 29. No reservations are available.
Women in Leadership Breakfast - Chandler
Friday, June 4th at 9:00 am
We're halfway through the year! That means it's time to Rewind, Refresh & Recommit to those goals for the rest of 2021!
Do not miss our next Women in Leadership Breakfast! We'll be talking about those goals that you made at the beginning of the year and where you need to be to finish 2021 strong! Our special guest, Liz Illg will be talking about the importance of owning your time, saying yes to you and how those actions will help you reach your goals.
Liz Illg is a multi-industry entrepreneur with brick-and-mortar businesses across Phoenix, Arizona, and several online businesses including her own consulting business. Liz Illg Consulting was founded when business owners continually asked Liz how she grew her brick-and-mortar storefront to multiple locations in a short amount of time. Liz attributes all of her success in business growth to systems, effective delegation, and strategic planning. Business owners consult with Liz when they're ready to systematize, delegate, and scale.
Please visit the link below to find out how to join us in supporting Fairway Independent Mortgage in putting together a care package for a U.S. Soldier! We will accept any donations leading up to the event or bring it to Parlay on June 4th! See you there!
DO NOT miss this event!
Local Business Mixer - Chandler
Thursday, July 1st at 4:30 pm
Join the Amy Jones Real Estate Group for our quarterly business mixer!
As one of the top real estate groups in the Valley, we are always looking for new businesses to share with our clients.
Come by Parlay Kitchen to meet our team of fantastic agents, as well as other local businesses!
This event is being sponsored by our friends at Fidelity National Title Agency - Copper Point
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