Summer Summer Time

Welcome back to our What's Up Southeast Valley for the month of April!

Happy Almost Summer! With warmer weather on the way, the real estate market is still busy and we're continuing to connect with you, our community and local small businesses!

We LOVE our clients, community, local businesses, giving back and serving YOU. Let's have an incredible month together!

Join Our Team

The Amy Jones Group is RAPIDLY growing! We are hiring Real Estate Sales Professionals & for someone to fill our Transaction Coordinator Role out of our Gilbert office. On pace to serve more than 175 families in 2021 alone, we are looking for EXPERIENCED agents to join our Southeast Valley team. Known for our excellent client care, exceptional negotiation skills, world class digital marketing, and being trusted advisors in the SE Valley for more than a decade - we are looking for hard working, ethical, creative, real estate professionals who love to learn and thrive in a team environment, where giving back and giving to each other is important to our overall success. For more information on who we are and how to apply, visit https://www.amyjonesgroup.com/careers or send your resume to [email protected]!

Serving The Community

We continue to face our daily challenges and uncertain times together and are thankful and grateful for our team and all of your support! We are looking forward to the connecting with and serving the community together for the rest of 2021. We have remained diligent in supporting our community through highlighting local businesses, hosting a women in leadership series, renovating a local teen center, giving back through food, water & clothing drives, helping families continue to move forward, pivoting our business model to meet the needs of our clients & business partners, offering more virtual services, growing our team, finding new ways to thank our current and past clients, reaching as many of you as possible and spreading the word that we are here for you no matter what! We're ready for summer!

ICAN Teen Center Renovation

After visiting the ICAN Teen Center in 2020 for one of our Live Love Local series, we decided the space could use a little love. Home to hundreds of teens who are served through after school programming the center provides Chandler's youth with a positive environment for learning to make some of life's toughest decisions. In partnership with Fidelity National Title, Fairway Independent Mortgage, Complete Home Renovations, IronDrive, Elite Shutters and Blinds, and Spice Up Your Home - we were able to bring this dream to life for the teens on Martin Luther King Jr. Day 2021. We were so honored to be featured in the Gilbert Sun News and hope that the article will help bring awareness to this amazing piece of our community!

👀 Watch Our LIVE! 

At What Price Would You Sell Your Home?

We all know that housing inventory is low and home prices are still rising, but we have buyer’s that are ready to buy NOW! Let’s talk about your “make me move” price and discuss the current value of your home and what it could sell for in today’s market. You have options, and could even sell your home off the market with little OR no showings. Click the link below to schedule a time to talk to one of our Listing Specialists TODAY!

Market Summary for the Beginning of April - 

Here are the basics - the ARMLS numbers for April 1, 2021 compared with April 1, 2020 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 4,088 versus 13,211 last year - down 69.1% - and down 9.0% from 4,491 last month
• Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 8,699 versus 17,238 last year - down 49.5% - and down 4.3% compared with 9,094 last month
• Pending Listings: 7,964 versus 6,125 last year - up 30.0% - but down 0.8% from 8,027 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 10,152 versus 11,988 last year - up 23.9% - but down 0.4% from 12,630 last month
• Monthly Sales: 10,385 versus 8,076 last year - up 28.6% - and up 29.2% from 8,039 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $231.61 versus $186.61 last year - up 24.1% - and up 1.7% from $227.68 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $358,250 versus $301,000 last year - up 19.0% - and up 2.7% from $349,000 last month

The active listing counts are now so small that it makes a huge difference which day of the week you measure. Over the last week the maximum count (on Saturday) is 16% higher than the minimum (on Wednesday). In some locations there can be twice as many homes listed on Saturday as the following Wednesday. This means that comparisons of April 1 with March 1 can be misleading because it depends on the day of the week they happen to fall on.

What we can tell you for certain is that the active listing count was painfully small last month and this month it is no better. We would need to add about 24,000 active listings to get back to a normal level. 

The monthly sales count for March 2020 was strong but the annual comparison with March 2020 is affected by the COVID-19 measures that started to bite in March last year. Between March and June last year the pending listing counts and under contract counts were dramatically lower than normal, which tends to obscure the fact that these counts in 2021 are also somewhat lower than we would normally expect. This is one of several signs that demand is starting to fall from the heights achieved in 4Q 2020.

Once borrowers start emerging from forbearance, we may see some degree of improvement to the abysmal supply shortage. However, indications from the lending industry suggest that any increase in supply will be tiny compared with the flood of distressed homes that hit the market between 2007 and 2013. We expect to see price rises slowing a little after June 2021, but there are currently no indications that a change in the direction of those prices is likely.

This is also great content for that person to practice and a good graphic for WUSEV. You could also do a section called “Contrary to popular belief” and then put the three questions and answers below and credit cromford.

April 5 - Over the last few weeks the Cromford® Market Index has fallen back slightly from its peak of 514.9 and is now dipping below 500. We want to make sure people do not over-react to this development. A level around 500 is extremely high and represents a huge imbalance between supply and demand which will force prices much higher than they currently are. The CMI is specifically designed to be the earliest of leading indicators and therefore gives us a signal of a change in the market before any of the other indicators is ready to do so. The CMI is telling us that demand is slightly weaker and supply has stopped falling. However a drop in the CMI from 515 to 500 represents an almost imperceptible change in the real world. Trying to feel a 3% cooling of a market that is on fire is an exercise in mathematics not something that will be obvious to many buyers or sellers. Currently there is no sign of a rapid fall from the top as supply remains extremely weak while demand is weakening only slightly with very strong sales counts. It is only the listings under contract that are less than impressive and it can be argued that listings can only go under contract if they exist in the first place. Low supply imposes an upper limit on the number of listings under contract.

Almost all of the other key indicators are still at extremes. The listing success rate stands at a level around 92.5%, close to a record high. We have never achieved anything over 90% in previous periods. In the 2005 bubble year we maxed out at 86%.

At the peak of the bubble the CMI hit 313, far below the currently measured 499. So until the CMI drops below 313, this 2020-2021 housing boom remains stronger than the peak of the 2004-2005 boom.

Pricing is of course a trailing indicator, especially closed sales prices. Here is the chart showing the average $/SF for under contract and closed listings.

The under contract line has been rising at a strong pace and if sales prices were going to enter a declining trend, this green line would have to show a significant falling trend first. We can also see that the average closed sales price is now higher than the average list price for these same listings and the gap is increasing. This did not occur in 2005. We have never seen this phenomenon before, where the average house is selling above list price.

April 3 - You may have already seen this article about the Arizona housing market.

https://azbigmedia.com/real-estate/residential-real-estate/is-a-housing-market-crash-on-the-way-in-2021/

While I would agree with much of the content of this article there are a few statements that interest me:

1. "Today’s mini-boom cannot be sustained"

Calling the current market conditions a "mini-boom" is ridiculous. If this is not a full scale boom, then I don't know what would qualify. This is a more significant and long-lived increase in price than any of the booms we have witnessed since the 1950s. We have over a decade of sustained under-building in the face of population growth to work off. This is not some market aberration that will quickly resolve itself. The annual appreciation rate has already exceeded 24% (measured by monthly average $/SF) and there are higher numbers to come. Also what does "cannot be sustained" mean. If it means that prices will one day be lower than today, that we would consider an unlikely prospect. At some stage the boom will fade but we expect prices to stabilize at a much higher level than 2Q 2021. In the words of Stephen Kim of Evercore ISI, we are entering housing's "Golden Age".

2. "Few people foresaw the housing market crash 15 years ago that ignited a worldwide recession"

This is true, but we were one of those people. We forecast the crash in June 2005 and sold our investment property holding for $940,000 that we purchased for $521,336 3 years earlier. In 2005 many people were reluctant to believe a crash was coming, but in 2021 there are far too many people willing to believe that a crash is coming, despite all the evidence to the contrary. This widespread belief is one of the factors that prevents it becoming a bubble. In a bubble, almost everyone believes the price rises will be sustained and fear of missing out is far higher than the fear of a crash. We see evidence of such bubbles in many places today, but housing in Phoenix is not one of them.

3. "Fueled by low interest rates, loose mortgage lending standards, and the nation’s unshakable faith in home ownership, home values rose at record rates year after year".

This is actually referring to a brief period of massive price rises in 2004 through 2006. This was not really "year after year" but a fairly short period compared with what we are currently experiencing. It was also not fueled by low interest rates, unless you consider 6% low. This would be considered a high rate today. It was certainly fuelled by loose lending standards, driven by Wall Street's insatiable appetite for mortgage backed securities. You can't sell mortgage backed securities unless you have mortgages to build them with, so mortgage brokers were incented to sell mortgages to almost anybody. Many of the borrowers went along with the scam and didn't even make the first repayment. Having secured a 100% loan, they lived rent-free for quite some time before they were eventually foreclosed and had to move out. Not every foreclosed homeowner was an innocent party at that time. Many home buyers fraudulently exploited the situation. The lenders take much of the blame but I know many borrows who were complicit. This is very different to today's lending industry and today's borrowers. Today's USA has a fairly shaky faith in home ownership thanks to the 2005 boom and 2007 bust, which is another reason why we are probably not in a bubble today. The fact that so many people think we are in a bubble is itself a reason to doubt we are in a bubble.

Sell Now, Move Later

We get it, you have a lot of equity in your home and would love to sell, but where would you go? We hear a lot of concern about sellers being able to find their new home. Interest rates are low and the market is hot, so do not let fear stop you from taking advantage of these opportunities. Our buyer specialists are here to help home buyer’s find the right home, even in this fast paced market!

Programs Available to Free Up Your Equity 

Opportunities to Sell Now and Move When You Are Ready 

Access to Off-Market and Coming Soon Properties 

Actively Prospecting to Find New Homes 

Ready to Sell Marketing 

Our Buyer's Needs to Potential Sellers 

Writing Competitive Offers to Win in Today's Market

Live.Love.Local - Connecting The Southeast Valley

Connecting with the community lights up our souls and we couldn't be more thrilled to get to know those who run our small businesses. It's so important that we support local, especially right now. Each business below is open, taking appointments, reserving parties and staying safe by following our state guidelines. Let's all do our part in keeping the economy alive, so that when it comes time to fully get back to life, we can all thrive once more.

Market of The Moment

Every week, our trusted Title partner, Don Czajkowski with Fidelity National Title has a meeting of the minds to talk about the ever changing real estate market, especially right now. This week, Mindy was a featured guest talking about inventory, new home builds, interest rates, tips to release the equity in your home, alternatives and options to give yourself more time to find a property to purchase when selling and what the Amy Jones Group has been up to this month. Check out all of the recent broadcasts below starting with the one from this week!

👏 Congratulations! Mazel Tov! ¡Felicidades!

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