Summer Time & Staying Home

Welcome back to our What's Up Southeast Valley for the month of July!

Since our last broadcast, there have been many changes within our community, environment, work life, home life and how we conduct our days. 

We are in this together and will get through this together!

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📈 Market Update

💬 Covid-19 Market Response

Here are the basics - the ARMLS numbers for July 1, 2020 compared with July 1, 2019 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 8,788 versus 15,422 last year - down 43.2% - and down 26.5% from 11,917 last month
• Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 14,279 versus 20,030 last year - down 28.7% - and down 16.8% compared with 17,171 last month
• Pending Listings: 7,933 versus 6,642 last year - up 19.4% - and up 9.8% from 7,224 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 13,424 versus 11,230 last year - up 19.5% - and up 7.6% from 12,478 last month
• Monthly Sales: 9,702 versus 9,476 last year - up 2.4% - and up 37.8% from 7,040 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $182.71 versus $172.17 last year - up 5.8% - and up 1.6% from $179.82 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $305,000 versus $279,000 last year - up 9.3% - and up 4.1% from $293,000 last month

The numbers above represent some of the largest percentage movements we have ever seen during a single month. The market remains a long way from normal, so we should probably expect further dramatic changes over the next few months.

Supply is crashing - down 26.5% (excluding UCB and CCBS listings) in a single month - and this is the most important factor in the state of the market. Without an improvement in supply, buyers will continue to compete for the available inventory even if demand were to decline substantially. Sellers are seeing some of the best pricing and terms for their homes in Arizona history and buyers are interviewing real estate agents who are going to be skilled enough to help them win the deal. The challenges for both buyers and sellers in this market extend to the iBuyers (online teams of investors who look to make cash offers on your home often well under market value) who have seen their acquisition numbers collapse since the first quarter and their market share drop substantially as a result. Curious about what working with Opendoor, Offerpad, or Zillow Offers looks like? 

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Demand has recovered from the pandemic-induced slump of April and May and is now benefitting from the catch-up effect, replacing the sales that were deferred during the second quarter. At price points below $600,000, the market is constrained by the shortage of homes for sale and homes above $600,000 are starting to feel the same squeeze. 

The Cromford® Supply Index has dropped from 52.9 to 44.1 over the last month. The normal reading is 100 and 41.3 represents the record low touched in April 2005. It is looking likely that we will push through that record low supply during July. The Cromford® Demand Index has recovered from 83.7 to 102.5, a remarkable surge, taking us from well below normal to slightly stronger than normal (100) demand. At the moment both the CSI and CDI numbers are diverging so the Cromford® Market Index can only go higher still. It stood at 232.7 on July 1 and the record high is 313, set in the spring of 2005.

So, what does it mean for you? Well, that all depends on what you are looking to accomplish. 

With less than 8900 homes available for sale in the MLS, home buyers are seeing record levels of appreciation in the homes they are purchasing during the global pandemic. The key for our buyers is that they have to be ready to pounce when they find the home they have been looking for and need to have all of their ducks in a row AND be ready to put their best foot forward. For our buyers, this process starts with a buyer consultation where we talk about the market statistics specific to the area you are looking in, understand your timeline your plan A,B, and C for making a move, and put together a customized plan for you. We review all of the documents we need to get signed, ensure you are not only prequalified with a preferred lender but that you know your max qualification, the price range that is comfortable for you, and what funds will be needed before, during and after your purchase. There has never been a time when being prepared to purchase a home, investment or primary, has been more important. With the low inventory and pace at which the market is moving, we don’t have the ability to do any of this work IN TIME and need to have you ready to go so that when you find the one, we can make it yours. Ready to schedule a consultation with our team of experts and see how our clients have gained an average of $40,000 in equity this year alone?

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And, how about our sellers? There has never been a better time to sell and our sellers are seeing record high prices, record low days on market, and often more importantly some of the best, most competitive terms that we’ve been able to negotiate. We’ve got appraisal contingency waivers meaning that the buyers of your property are willing to pay OVER appraised value for your home, we’ve got escalation clauses which means buyers are willing to compete against each other for you home, we’ve got post closing least backs meaning that buyers are offering our sellers the ability to stay in their home longer to ensure you have time to find a home to move to, and we’ve got people calling us about our potential sellers which is allowing us to sell your home for top dollar, without any showings, and obtaining the terms that are best for you and your family. So, if it’s such a great time to sell, why aren’t more people doing that? The answer is simple - fear. I hear a lot, “what happens when you sell my home in 2 days, and I have nowhere to go?”. Well, I’m not sure if it's for you, but I’ve opened up my schedule next week for people just like you. Let’s sit down and chat. 

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