Month of March

Welcome back to our What's Up Southeast Valley for the month of March!

The real estate market is changing with each moment and we're finding new ways to connect with you, our community and local small businesses throughout it all! Welcome to Fall in Arizona, we are so excited to be on this journey with you!

We LOVE our clients, community, local businesses, giving back and serving YOU. Let's have an incredible month together!

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Our Team Around Town

This month has been full of fun as we stepped out, stepped up, and stepped into the lives of our community! From Women in Leadership events, to the House of Refuge volunteer day, buyer's walk throughs and more - Check out all of the fun and follow us on SOCIAL!

We're Hiring!

The Amy Jones Group is RAPIDLY growing! We are hiring Real Estate Sales Professionals for our Gilbert office. On pace to serve more than 165 families in 2021 alone, we are looking for EXPERIENCED agents to join our Southeast Valley team. Known for our excellent client care, exceptional negotiation skills, world class digital marketing, and being trusted advisors in the SE Valley for more than a decade - we are looking for hard working, ethical, creative, real estate professionals who love to learn and thrive in a team environment, where giving back and giving to each other is important to our overall success. For more information on who we are and how to apply, visit https://www.amyjonesgroup.com/careers or send your resume to [email protected]!

Is it hot or is it cold? In Arizona, we could be talking about coffee, tea, or the weather (hint: it’s both depending on the time of day!) but what we’re really talking about is the REAL ESTATE MARKET! Now wait a minute, many of you might be saying, there is nothing COLD about the real estate market in Arizona, is there? Well, let’s take a look at the numbers:

Here are the basics - the ARMLS numbers for March 1, 2022 compared with March 1, 2021 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 4,588 versus 4,491 last year - up 2.2% - but down 5.9% from 4,876 last month
• Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 8,305 versus 9,094 last year - down 8.7% - and down 0.9% compared with 8,380 last month
• Pending Listings: 8,333 versus 8,027 last year - up 3.8% - and up 6.9% from 7,798 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 12,050 versus 12,630 last year - down 4.6% - but up 6.6% from 11,302 last month
• Monthly Sales: 8,000 versus 8,035 last year - down 0.4% - but up 12.7% from 7,096 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $284.55 versus $231.11 last year - up 23.1% - and up 3.6% from $274.70 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $445,000 versus $349,000 last year - up 27.5% - and up 2.7% from $433,500 last month

The downward trend in supply that started in late October continued throughout February, but slowed down. We have slightly more inventory than we had this time last year, as long as we exclude UCB and CCBS listings. We have fewer active listings in total, but UCB counts have fallen by almost 20% compared to a year ago.

Demand is slightly below last year but given the sharp increase in interest rates, it is holding up pretty well. The market is cooler than a year ago, but not by much. The contract ratio stands at 263, down from 281 this time last year, but still abnormally high. In a normal market, this would be somewhere between 30 and 60.

Prices are rising at colossal speed. The average $/SF has risen 6.2% in the first 2 months of the year and are likely to continue rising until May at least. The median sales price is up from $425,000 to $445,000 in 2 months and looks likely to break $470,000 by the end of the second quarter. The third quarter is always a slower period and we may get some respite from the rising prices between June and September.

The only real sign of any slowdown is in the rental market which has seen a significant rise in new listings compared to the first 2 months of last year. The average rent for listings closed through ARMLS has stayed around $1.35 per sq. ft. per month since July 2021 and currently has little upward momentum. We have suggested several times that when a cooling off comes it will be seen in the rental sector far earlier than the purchase sector. If rents start to stagnate then investors cannot afford to pay ever higher prices to purchase those buildings wihtout seeing their cash flows depressed. The number of building permits for multi-family properties suggests we may be over-building for the rental demand even though we are still under-building in the single-family segment.

There are plenty of observers suggesting the market is due for a downturn, but the market is not giving off any data to support that opinion. Supply remains extremely low with no sign of significant new supply of homes to buy. Demand is down a little but seems to be extremely resilient and although it is lower than last year, it remains very strong by historic standards. A change may happen, and you know we will report it if it is there to be seen. Right now there is no change to report.

New construction will continue to be a viable option, especially for our renters looking to transition out of a variable monthly payment into a secure mortgage and some time left on their lease to accommodate the average 10-14 month build time that most builders are averaging. Supply chain issues and labor shortages impeded their ability to keep up with demand over the last two years but we are starting to see some lot availability, some flexibility in interest lists and lotteries - each community is going to be different and having a specialist to help guide you through the intricacies of purchasing new construction can make that dream a reality.

One thing is certain, national housing experts continue to highlight suburban cities that are amenity rich as one of the fastest growing segments of our market. To see how this prediction could help your family in 2022, reach out to us today!

BeLocal Business Buzz

Monday Market Update

Thursday Market of The Moment

Every week, our trusted Title partner, Don Czajkowski with Fidelity National Title has a meeting of the minds to talk about the ever changing real estate market, especially right now. This week, Mindy was a featured guest talking about inventory, new home builds, interest rates, tips to release the equity in your home, alternatives and options to give yourself more time to find a property to purchase when selling and what the Amy Jones Group has been up to this month. Check out all of the recent broadcasts below starting with the one from this week!

Through Her Eyes

Live.Love.Local - Connecting The Southeast Valley

Connecting with the community lights up our souls and we couldn't be more thrilled to get to know those who run our small businesses. It's so important that we support local, especially right now. Each business below is open, taking appointments, reserving parties and staying safe by following our state guidelines. Let's all do our part in keeping the economy alive, so that when it comes time to fully get back to life, we can all thrive once more.

Community on Purpose Podcast

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