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Weekend Warrior | October 16-18, 2026

The Amy Jones Group
Oct 16 32 minutes read




 Weekend Warrior: This Is the Season We’ve Been Waiting For 🍂🏡

This week felt like the start of that stretch of the year where everything starts moving at once — in real estate, in the community, and on our calendars.

We sent half a dozen buyers to meet with our lending partners this week as they started figuring out what it would take to become homeowners by the holidays. We also worked through two sticky appraisal issues, brought two new listings to market, and made a handful of strategic price adjustments that have us positioned for what we hope will be a strong weekend of activity. This is the part of the market where preparation really matters, and we are seeing firsthand how much difference it makes when buyers and sellers have a clear plan before the pressure shows up.

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Our community calendar is moving just as fast. We unfortunately had to cancel tonight’s movie night at Verde because of the wind, but in very on-brand fashion, we were already double booked with the Power Ranch Trick or Treat event with Eco Roofing. That tends to happen when you have a team of 12 heading into fall — and truthfully, we don’t hate it. This is the season for showing up everywhere we can.

With this weather finally cooperating, we’re expecting a busy open house weekend, and we’re heading straight into the heart of fall with even more listings, events, volunteer opportunities, and family fun ahead.

Scroll on for this week’s market update, new listings, open houses, community happenings, and all the ways we’re helping people move forward — whether that means buying, selling, planning, or just figuring out what comes next. 💛


 

Inside this week’s edition:

🏡 New listings + recent closings
⚽ A fresh market breakdown in plain English
☀️ Summer opportunities for buyers (AND Sellers!)
⚽ Upcoming events and ways to get involved
🎉 Open houses happening this weekend across the Valley

And wherever your weekend takes you, be sure to tag us - we love seeing what you're up to. 💛



 One Less Upfront Cost: Desert Financial’s Free Appraisal Offer

Buying a home comes with plenty of expenses, so anytime there’s an opportunity to remove one of those upfront costs, it’s worth paying attention.

For a limited time, Desert Financial is covering the appraisal fee for qualifying mortgage borrowers. The offer applies to completed loan applications received between September 1 and December 31, 2026, as long as the loan closes by February 15, 2027. 

That matters because an appraisal is one of the standard costs buyers typically encounter during the mortgage process. Having that fee covered can help reduce the amount of cash needed along the way and make the process feel a little more manageable.

Desert Financial is also highlighting local mortgage support, competitive rates, and flexible terms as part of the program. For buyers who participate in its Home Plus program, there may also be an opportunity for up to $7,500 in closing-cost credit, subject to the program’s terms and participating broker requirements. 

As always, the important thing is not just asking, “What’s the rate?” but looking at the full picture: interest rate, monthly payment, cash needed at closing, available credits, appraisal costs, and which loan structure best fits your goals.

If you’re thinking about buying before the end of the year, this is one more program worth comparing as part of your overall strategy.

At the Amy Jones Group, we’re happy to help you look at the options side by side so you can understand what actually saves you money - not just what sounds good on the flyer.

 

📊Market Watch: Prices May Be Finding Their Floor - Even as Buyers Gain Leverage

If you caught our market update on Instagram this week, you already know the headline: the Greater Phoenix market has continued shifting in buyers’ favor.

But the pricing data released this week adds an important layer to that story. The market is softer. Demand is weaker. Inventory is higher. And yet… prices are not falling nearly as quickly as you might assume from those headlines.

💰 The Summer Price Slide May Be Bottoming Out

For the month ending October 15, the median sales price across the ARMLS market was $450,000. That’s exactly where it was a month ago. And exactly where it was a year ago. Median price per square foot came in at $250.34, down only 0.1% from September. That makes three monthly declines in a row, but this one was dramatically smaller than the previous two. The current forecast calls for approximately $251 per square foot and a $450,000 median sales price by November 15, which suggests prices may be flat to slightly firmer over the next month.

Translation?

The summer decline appears to be finding its floor. That does not mean demand has suddenly returned or sellers have regained the upper hand. It means price and market balance are not the same thing.

🏡 Buyers Have More Choice — Even Without a Price Crash

This is one of the biggest misconceptions we hear. A buyer’s market does not require home values to collapse. Right now, buyers are gaining leverage because there are more homes competing for fewer contracts. As of mid-October, there were just 6,423 listings under contract, down about 12% from September and 14% from this time last year. Earlier October data also showed active inventory rising sharply while pending and under-contract activity fell. And the city-level numbers continue moving in the same direction. Every one of the 18 major cities we track has moved in a buyer-favorable direction over the last month. The average Cromford Market Index is now down 14.5% month over month, with supply higher across all 18 cities and demand weaker in 17 of them. We still have five seller’s markets, five balanced markets, and eight buyer’s markets — so, as always, your city and price point matter enormously. Chandler, for example, remains technically seller-favorable, while Gilbert is balanced and Queen Creek is firmly buyer-favorable. That is why “How’s the Phoenix market?” will never tell us enough.

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 ...Continued from above

📈 And Then There’s Luxury…

This is where averages can get especially misleading. Average price per square foot jumped 4.2% this month, even while the median barely moved, and the reason is largely the return of the luxury market. Homes priced at $1 million or more represented 10% of closings but 33.2% of all dollars spent during the period. That heavier luxury mix pulls the average upward even when the typical home is not appreciating at the same pace. It is exactly why we tend to rely more heavily on the median when we are trying to understand what is happening in the middle of the market, and it is another reminder that there really is not one single Greater Phoenix market.

📉 Rates Still Matter — But They Aren’t the Whole Story

Rates have been one of the biggest reasons buyer demand slowed so sharply over the last six weeks, but there was at least a little relief this week. After the 30-year fixed rate peaked around 7.61% on October 5, it had eased back to about 7.33% by October 15. That does not mean buyers are suddenly going to flood back into the market, but when people have been staring at rates above 7.5%, even a modest move downward can make a difference in both affordability and confidence. This is also where strategy becomes especially important. Seller concessions, closing-cost credits, temporary or permanent rate buydowns, builder incentives, purchase-price negotiations, and different loan products can all change the actual cost of the deal. The headline rate is only one number; the financing strategy around it can look very different.

🚨 What About Foreclosures?

We are also watching distress levels because this is another area where scary headlines can get ahead of reality. Among listings currently under contract, 94.6% are normal sales, while 1.5% are REOs and 3.9% are pre-foreclosures. That distressed share has been creeping higher since 2022, so it is absolutely worth monitoring, but it remains low by historical standards. Our read on it right now is amber, not red. It deserves attention and context, not panic.

💛 The Big Picture

This week’s numbers are a good example of why market data needs context. Buyers have more choices and more negotiating leverage, while sellers are facing more competition and need to be sharper about pricing, preparation, staging, and marketing. Demand is still weak, but at the same time, the median sales price is exactly where it was a year ago and the summer price decline appears to be leveling off. So this is not the market of 2021, but it is also not 2008. It is a market where good strategy matters more because the easy momentum is gone.

For buyers, that means looking beyond the headline rate and figuring out what combination of price, credits, incentives, and financing makes the numbers work. For sellers, it means understanding what buyers are actually choosing and positioning the home accordingly from day one. For both sides, the market data becomes useful only once we know what you are actually trying to accomplish.


Elevating the Luxury Real Estate Experience

Luxury real estate is about much more than a home with a higher price tag. It's about thoughtful representation, strategic marketing, trusted relationships, and understanding that every client's definition of luxury is different. That's why we've expanded the luxury resources on the Amy Jones Group website—to give buyers and sellers a place to explore not only Arizona's exceptional properties, but also the expertise, global connections, and personalized service that make a difference when navigating the luxury market.

As members of the Luxury Real Estate network, our clients benefit from far more than a designation behind our name. Sellers gain access to one of the world's largest luxury real estate platforms, connecting their home to qualified buyers both locally and around the globe. Buyers gain access to an extensive network of luxury professionals, exclusive opportunities, and experienced guidance throughout every step of their search. Combined with more than two decades of experience serving the Phoenix metro area, these relationships allow us to deliver local expertise backed by international reach.

Whether you're considering the sale of a luxury property, searching for your next home, relocating to Arizona, or simply exploring what's available in our market, we invite you to browse our Luxury Real Estate resources. Our goal has never been to impress clients with credentials alone. It's to show how those relationships, designations, and partnerships translate into better marketing, stronger representation, broader exposure, and an elevated experience from beginning to end. 💛



🔥 UPCOMING EVENTS & OPEN HOUSES 🔥 


One of our favorite things about this time of year is seeing how many different ways this community continues to show up for one another. 💛 We’re officially wrapped up our Rhinestone Ranch project with Branching Out, and what started as a big idea turned into more than $5,000 in donations, incredible partners helping with the work inside the home, and so many people contributing time, resources, furniture, supplies, and heart. We are so excited to know the girls will be moving in soon and that these spaces were created with so much care behind them.

And we are definitely not slowing down from here. Fall is packed with opportunities to connect, serve, celebrate, and spend time together. We’ve got EcoRoofing’s annual Trunk or Treat on October 16, Tiny Pumpkins Play Date on October 20, a healing Sound Bath at The Village Athletic Club in Chandler on October 24, and an ICAN Harvest Party on October 27. Then we roll right into another First Sips on November 3 and start preparing for our holiday drives and the return of Bunko Night on November 12th which I know everyone is excited about!

There’s a little bit of everything ahead - volunteer opportunities, family events, women’s events, community gatherings, and plenty of chances to simply get together. Around here, community is never a side project. It’s woven into how we do business, how we build relationships, and how we make sure the people and organizations doing important work around us feel supported.

So save a few dates, bring a friend, bring the kids, volunteer where you can, and keep telling us about the causes that matter to you. We’ll keep doing our best to connect the people who want to help with the places that need them most and if you see something you want to come to, email us at [email protected] and we'll get you signed up!

We’ll be sharing more behind-the-scenes, event updates, and ways to get involved over the next few weeks - so if you’re not already following along on Instagram, that’s the best place to stay connected and see it all unfold in real time. 💛

Around here, events aren’t just things to attend - they’re how we build relationships, strengthen families, and create lasting memories together. If you’re looking for a way to plug in, serve, or simply spend time with great people, there truly is something for everyone this season. 💛


For Deals, Discounts, Don't Miss Events and HOT local picks for your whole crew, visit East Valley Moms! and subscribe to the EVM Weekender.

Moving to the East Valley soon?

In partnership with East Valley Moms, we've released the East Valley Relocation Guide just for you! With tips for new moms, where to take your kiddos for swim lessons and more - you are not going to want to miss this guide! Download your copy below or message us for details on how to get a hard copy!

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💬 Your Story Is Our Impact

We’re still feeling incredibly grateful after being recognized with the Gilbert Chamber Impact Award - but the real impact we care about is the one we make in your lives, every single day. If we’ve helped you navigate a move, connected you to the community, or simply made you feel seen and supported, we’d love for you to share your experience in a Google review. Your stories help others find us - and remind us why we do what we do. 💙



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The greatest compliment you could give, is the referral of your friends or family. Trusting us with their real estate needs is an honor and a compliment we take very seriously! Click the link below to refer them and be assured that they will be well taken care of!


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