Spring is Upon Us!

Welcome back to our What's Up Southeast Valley for the month of March!

Happy Spring! With warmer weather on the way, we're getting back into the swing of work, school and resuming travel. The real estate market is still busy and we're continuing to connect with you, our community and local small businesses!

We LOVE our clients, community, local businesses, giving back and serving YOU. Let's have an incredible month together!

Join Our Team

The Amy Jones Group is RAPIDLY growing! We are hiring Real Estate Sales Professionals & for someone to fill our Transaction Coordinator Role out of our Gilbert office. On pace to serve more than 175 families in 2021 alone, we are looking for EXPERIENCED agents to join our Southeast Valley team. Known for our excellent client care, exceptional negotiation skills, world class digital marketing, and being trusted advisors in the SE Valley for more than a decade - we are looking for hard working, ethical, creative, real estate professionals who love to learn and thrive in a team environment, where giving back and giving to each other is important to our overall success. For more information on who we are and how to apply, visit https://www.amyjonesgroup.com/careers or send your resume to [email protected]!

Serving The Community

We continue to face our daily challenges and uncertain times together and are thankful and grateful for our team and all of your support! We are looking forward to the connecting with and serving the community together in 2021. We have remained diligent in supporting our community through highlighting local businesses, starting a women in leadership series, renovating a local teen center, giving back through food, water & clothing drives, helping families continue to move forward through weekly COVID-19 challenges and changes, pivoting our business model to meet the needs of our clients & business partners, offering more virtual services, growing our team, finding new ways to thank our current and past clients, reaching as many of you as possible and spreading the word that we are here for you no matter what! We're looking forward to thriving in 2021 with you!

👀 Watch Our LIVE! 

Here are the basics - the ARMLS numbers for March 1, 2021 compared with March 1, 2020 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 4,491 versus 11,003 last year - down 59.2% - and down 13.3% from 5,180 last month
• Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 9,094 versus 15,776 last year - down 42.4% - and down 6.5% compared with 9,727 last month
• Pending Listings: 8,027 versus 7,215 last year - up 11.3% - and up 13.5% from 7,070 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 12,630 versus 11,988 last year - up 5.4% - and up 8.7% from 11,617 last month
• Monthly Sales: 8,020 versus 7,470 last year - up 7.4% - and up 9.1% from 7,354 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $227.89 versus $185.09 last year - up 23.1% - and up 4.8% from $217.47 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $349,000 versus $295,000 last year - up 18.3% - and up 2.9% from $339,000 last month

In March 2020 we wrote that the lack of supply was making life extremely difficult for buyers. It is now down almost 60% since then - can you believe the change that just a year can make? The monthly sales count, pending listing counts and under contract counts are all higher than last year, but not by as much as last month which could be an early indicator that we're seeing a dip in demand - something that can't be felt by sellers or as we continue to record massive price increases due to the scarcity of supply. Even if demand dropped well below normal we would still have multiple offers for most listings and we'd need about 7x the current supply to get back somewhere CLOSE to normalcy - anyone looking to build 30,000 homes like, tonight?

Still, the full impact of the housing shortage has not been fully recognized with continued theories of a foreclosure crisis - just yesterday someone asked me if I had heard that because of COVID, they were told that our housing prices would drop, and was that true. Drop? We're expecting a 30% increase this year and an estimated 3 years to dig ourselves back out of this inventory shortage - so no, I don't expect the prices to drop. Maybe we should take a quick look back at the bubble (and why this isn't a bubble) and then we can go forward again (and reiterate why this is not a bubble). What exactly happened during the bubble you asked? 

1. The active listing supply increased dramatically between April 2005 and December 2006 due to over-building of new homes and the frantic speculative wave of 2004 quickly losing momentum
2. Prices started to fall from July 2006 onward due to supply becoming much stronger than demand
3. The fall in prices meant recent buyers had zero or negative equity from 2007 onwards, loosening their motivation to keep up their mortgage payments
4. Foreclosures started to be filed starting in 2007 against homes that were quickly abandoned due to the lack of equity
5. A huge wave of bank owned properties hit the market in 2008 and 2009, adding to the supply problem
6. The lack of equity meant many homes listed in 2008 through 2011 were short sales.
7. Investors pounced on the bank-owned homes and short sales from 2009 onwards, bringing the drop in prices to a complete halt by 2011

Soooooo, today - We have far too little supply, not far too much and because of that, we are entering a period of extreme appreciation that will not last forever. We are measuring 23.1% using the monthly $/SF figure and this is quite mild compared with what we expect to see in 2 or 3 months time. The average price per square foot for closed listings rose almost 5% in just 4 weeks during February. Dollar volume is at very high levels for the time of year, thanks to unit sales up 7.4% and pricing up 23.1% compared to a year ago, when the market was already at full steam ahead. We expect to see dollar volume hit new records during the second quarter, along with all of the pricing metrics. So, NOW IS THE TIME. 

But how, you ask? There are more options now than there will ever be for making a move under these conditions. What WILL happen before we shore up the inventory gap is that the selling environment will change. We will make our way through the buyers who have cash to pay over appraised value and the market will no longer necessitate it which means instead of selling for $50,000 over asking, you'll sell for $10,000 over what the last sale in your neighborhood was. You won't get the option to lease back because everyone will have been doing that for a year and everyone will have to MOVE. Builders will get through their interest lists and instead of it being 12-18 months until you can get into a home, it will go back to 8-10 months and the people who have been holding out on listing their home until their new build is complete, will finally list their "old" home.  Right now there is more flexibility in the selling market than there will ever be and more short lived MARKET OF THE MOMENT programs that serve our needs NOW but won't be around when the market doesn't necessitate their value later. So the question is, are you ready?  

Live.Love.Local - Connecting The Southeast Valley

Connecting with the community lights up our souls and we couldn't be more thrilled to get to know those who run our small businesses. It's so important that we support local, especially right now. Each business below is open, taking appointments, reserving parties and staying safe by following our state guidelines. Let's all do our part in keeping the economy alive, so that when it comes time to fully get back to life, we can all thrive once more.

Market of The Moment

Every week, our trusted Title partner, Don Czajkowski with Fidelity National Title has a meeting of the minds to talk about the ever changing real estate market, especially right now. This week, Mindy was a featured guest talking about inventory, new home builds, interest rates, tips to release the equity in your home, alternatives and options to give yourself more time to find a property to purchase when selling and what the Amy Jones Group has been up to this month. Check out all of the recent broadcasts below starting with the one from this week!

👏 Congratulations! Mazel Tov! ¡Felicidades!

None of this is possible without our amazing clients.
We'd love to help you or someone you love if we haven't already - or help you again!
Here are the buyers and sellers who made big moves last month...

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