Weekend Warrior | January 17-18, 2026

Weekend Warrior: Momentum, Connection & Clarity

This week’s Weekend Warrior feels like a true snapshot of what January is all about - momentum picking up, routines settling back in, and plans starting to turn into action. With kids heading back to school after the ball drop, offers already out for families this weekend, and new listings hitting the market in both Tempe and Chandler, the year is clearly wasting no time! The market is unfolding right where we’d expect it to, and our latest Market Watch breaks down what that really means for buyers and sellers as January begins to set the tone for the months ahead - so scroll on fam!

Beyond the numbers, we’re also leaning into the conversations that matter most for families right now - including a fresh look at the rent-versus-buy question for 2026, designed to help you think beyond headlines and focus on what actually fits your life and long-term goals. And of course, community is front and center. We’re coming off a fun Playdate on the Green, gearing up for Moonlit Movies on the Green with Frozen later this month, preparing for our February Business Mixer with a Valentine’s card give-back for seniors, and getting ready to announce upcoming volunteer opportunities with Community on Purpose. It’s that balance - homes, people, and connection - that continues to define how we start this year, and we’re excited to be building it together, one week at a time.

So snag your heated up cup of coffee (for the second or third time if you are anything like us) or a quiet moment between kid's sports games this weekend (or the big kid kind) and scroll on or better yet, come on out and meet up with one of our crew at their open houses this weekend - we'll be ALL over the Valley and would love to meet up! 

📊Market Watch: A Strong Start with a Few Major Shifts

As we move deeper into January, the housing market is starting to show its true shape for the first half of the year. Overall, activity is solid and right in line with what we’d expect for this time of year - but a few recent shifts are worth paying attention to. Across Greater Phoenix, most cities are still moving in a direction that favors sellers, but that trend has softened slightly over the past few weeks. Right now, 14 cities are improving for sellers, while 4 smaller cities - Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, Avondale, and Paradise Valley - are seeing conditions tilt a bit more toward buyers. Even so, the bigger picture hasn’t changed much: we still have 10 cities in seller’s markets, 2 balanced, and 6 favoring buyers, which is the same overall mix as last week.

What has changed is the pace. The average improvement in the Cromford Market Index (CMI) is now up about 5.8% over the last month, down from stronger gains we saw earlier. In plain terms, the market is still leaning seller-friendly, but momentum has become a little less certain - not reversing, just wobblier. That’s very normal for January. The strongest seller-side movement continues to show up in Phoenix, Glendale, Mesa, Gilbert, Peoria, and Surprise, which matters because these larger cities tend to drive the overall market. Peoria, in particular, just moved from a balanced market into a seller’s market, while Paradise Valley moved the opposite direction after an exceptionally strong couple of years.

Demand Is Starting the Year Well

One encouraging sign - especially for sellers - is demand. Even with the typical early-January slowdown, the year started with more homes under contract than this time last year, and that number grew faster between the first two weeks of January than it did in early 2025. Historically, the biggest jump in buyer activity happens between weeks 2 and 8 of the year, so while it’s early, this is a healthy start. Interest rates are playing a role here too. Rates have eased slightly, now hovering around 6.0% for a 30-year fixed, which is the lowest we’ve seen in quite some time. While that may not feel “cheap” compared to the unusual years of 2020–2021, it’s actually very close to what was considered a good rate for most of the last few decades. Small rate changes don’t usually cause a buying frenzy, but they do help hesitant buyers take the next step.

There was also a recent government move aimed at nudging rates lower by increasing demand for mortgage-backed securities. The early impact has already shaved rates down a bit. While we don’t expect this to dramatically change the market overnight, it should be supportive of demand, especially as we head toward spring.

What This Means Right Now

This is a market that rewards being informed, not rushed. Buyers still have options, especially early in the year, but competition is starting to build in the larger, more active cities. Sellers are seeing better conditions than they experienced for much of last year, even if the pace isn’t perfectly smooth week to week. The next few weeks will matter. January is when the market quietly decides what kind of year it wants to be. So far, it’s pointing to a better season than last year, though not a dramatic one - steadier, healthier, and more balanced.

For families thinking about a move in 2025 or early 2026, this is exactly why we talk about planning to plan. Getting clarity now - before spring activity ramps up - gives you more control over timing, choices, and outcomes.

Our event calendar is officially back in full swing, and we’re easing into the year with all the things that make this community special. We just wrapped up Playdate on the Green last week, and it was exactly the kind of fun, relaxed connection we love seeing - kids playing, parents catching up, and neighbors becoming friends. 

Next up is our monthly Moonlit Movies on the Green at Verde at Cooley Station, featuring Frozen, which feels like the perfect January pick (even if “frozen” is very relative here in Arizona). We’re also getting excited for our Business Mixer next month, a favorite way to bring local professionals together with intention, where we’ll be collecting and creating Valentine’s Day cards for seniors as part of our give-back focus. 

Behind the scenes, we’re preparing to announce upcoming volunteer events with ICAN and Branching Out through Community on Purpose, and yes - we promise the summer pool party will be back too… just not quite yet. It’s still a little cold for that 😉

Weekend Events