Weekend Warrior | December 20-21, 2025

Weekend Warrior: Year-End Reflection & Where We're Headed

As we head into the final stretch of the year, we’ve found ourselves reflecting on just how much this community has done together. Homes bought and sold. Big decisions made with care. Families supported through transitions that had very little to do with timing the market and everything to do with timing life. This week alone reminded us of that truth, with a new listing going live in Goodyear and strong activity behind it. People buy homes all year long, because real life doesn’t pause and when a family decides it’s time to move, the plan matters just as much as the market.

Last night, we wrapped up our final Movies on the Green at Verde with a double feature of Christmas favorites - it was the perfect night and exactly why we love creating spaces for people to simply be together. If you couldn’t make it, no worries at all. We’re excited to share that we’re continuing Tuesday Play Dates and Movies on the Green into the new year and all the way through summer. That means two chances every month to come out, connect, and hang with us right here in Gilbert.

Where to Sled & Build a Snowman This Winter

Our families may not wake up to fresh snow at home, but one of the best perks of living in Arizona is that a winter wonderland is only a short drive away. From sledding hills to perfect spots for snow play, we can enjoy all the magic of winter without the daily shoveling our friends in colder climates know all too well. If your kids are itching to build a snowman, toss snowballs, or race down a hill on a sled, these family-friendly snow destinations across Arizona deserve a spot on your winter bucket list.

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 As we look ahead to the next couple of weeks, our intention is simple: connection, connection, connection. That’s why we gave our clients a sneak peek at what we’re planning for 2026 - more moments of appreciation, more local partnerships, and more ways to show up beyond the transaction. (If you’re a client, keep an eye on your inbox, there’s a little thank-you waiting for you.) It’s also why we’re encouraging families to use this quieter season to plan to plan. We’ve added three new articles to our website this week covering where the market stands, what we’re watching for 2026, and what it takes to make confident moves next year because January clarity often starts with December conversations.

And finally, we wrapped up (pun intended) some of the most meaningful giving of the year with major donations supporting Branching Out and House of Refuge - a powerful reminder that the best impact happens when community shows up together. You’ll see more about how to support Community on Purpose later in this newsletter if giving back feels aligned for you right now.

Grateful. Thankful. And fully here for it all wherever you are in your planning, reflecting, or dreaming for what’s next - Happiest of Holidays to you and your family from us and ours ❤️ .

📊 Market Watch: Momentum Builds Beneath the Surface

If the market feels like it’s quietly shifting, that’s because it is  and the data is becoming harder to ignore. Over the last several weeks, conditions across much of the Valley have moved meaningfully in favor of sellers, with demand strengthening while supply continues to decline.

The Cromford Market Index (CMI) continues to tell that story clearly. For the second week in a row, green circles (markets improving for sellers) are outnumbering red circles by 15 to 3, and the average CMI change over the last month is now +10.1%, up from +8.6% just one week ago. That’s a notable acceleration especially for December.

Where We’re Seeing the Strongest Shifts

Leading the move toward stronger seller conditions are Peoria, Gilbert, Queen Creek, Tempe, Goodyear, Fountain Hills, Chandler, Cave Creek, Phoenix, and Glendale. At the same time, the few cities not yet showing improvement for sellers - Paradise Valley, Surprise, and Avondale - are only seeing very mild improvement for buyers, not deterioration.

We now have 9 cities firmly in seller’s market territory, including the three largest markets: Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Mesa. That’s half of our 18 major cities. The remaining half is split between balanced markets and buyer’s markets, but importantly, only six large cities remain below a CMI of 100. This table looks far more favorable for sellers than we expected just one month ago.

The Most Reliable Indicator We Watch

Sales per year smooths out the noise. Instead of asking “How did this month perform?” we look at a rolling 12-month window — updated daily — to see whether the total number of homes sold over a full year is rising or falling.

Here’s what that data shows:

• A clear decline from the June 2021 peak to the trough in August–September 2024

• A brief bounce late 2024, followed by a long flat stretch through mid-2025

• And now - real signs of life

Over the last three months, annual sales have climbed from roughly 67,000 to nearly 69,000 sales per year. That doesn’t happen by accident. Sales don’t increase by 2,000 annually from random sampling - this is a meaningful, steady improvement. We’re still far from “normal,” but the direction finally matters.

What This Means Right Now

This isn’t a market that rewards rushing or waiting blindly. It rewards preparation, clarity, and timing that’s based on life, not headlines.

For sellers, this means more showing activity, shorter days on market, and less pressure to reduce pricing as we head into spring. For buyers, there’s still inventory, negotiating room, and opportunity but the window for maximum leverage is narrowing in many cities.

And as we head into the new year, this is exactly why December is the perfect time to plan to plan. January conversations go better when they start now — with data, options, and a strategy that fits your family’s needs.

If you’re thinking about a move in 2025 or early 2026, this is a strong moment to get informed and get intentional.

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